# Saudi East-West Pipeline restarted as Hormuz traffic stayed disrupted

*World. 62% certain. Sunday, 1 November 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Hormuz tanker flows remained below normal while the Bab el-Mandeb Strait stayed open.**

Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz did not return to normal levels by the end of October. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait continued to operate without a closure. The United States did not issue a statement ending the Iranian blockade, and Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West Oil Pipeline

Ship-tracking data showed that tanker volumes through Hormuz stayed below pre-conflict levels through October 31. Vessels continued to reroute around the Gulf of Oman, extending voyage times. The reduced flow kept regional Oil prices elevated.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait handled its usual commercial traffic without interruption. No reports indicated a shutdown of the shipping lane by October 31. Authorities kept the chokepoint fully operational.

The United States held off on any formal declaration that the Iranian blockade had ended. The absence of a declaration left the blockade's status unchanged.

Saudi Arabia brought its East-West Pipeline back online before the end of October. The Pipeline now moves crude between the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf. Its operation offers an alternative route for Saudi exports.

## Analysis

The persistence of reduced tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz means that a key conduit for Middle Eastern Oil remains constrained, forcing shippers to use longer routes. At the same time, the uninterrupted flow through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait preserves a vital link between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, preventing a second major bottleneck. Together, these conditions sustain pressure on global Oil logistics and keep price volatility possible.

The United States' decision not to announce an end to the Iranian blockade signals that diplomatic or military steps to resolve the impasse have not materialised by the end of October. In contrast, the re-activation of Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline provides a domestic alternative for moving crude, potentially easing some export pressures for Saudi producers. The divergent moves illustrate differing national approaches to managing the disruption.

Overall, the region faces a mixed picture: one strategic waterway remains partially blocked, another stays open, and a major inland transport route has resumed. The lack of a clear US declaration leaves the blockade's future uncertain, while the Pipeline's restart may mitigate some supply concerns for Saudi Oil

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [Strait of Hormuz Closed, Day 214 | Live Tracker & Monitor](https://straits.live/)
- [2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis)
- [Is traffic through Hormuz really back to normal?](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/09/09/is-traffic-through-hormuz-really-back-to-normal)
- [Tracking ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Updated regularly.](https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/strait-of-hormuz-ports-traffic-trump-us-iran-war-rcna331507)

## What this was built from

- **Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?**: No, 98%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-october-31-20260810151043583)
- **Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of October? [Polymarket]**: No, 97%; settles Saturday, 31 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/BillClintonBubba/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-LPdl9Plhqg)
- **Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?**: No, 93%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by)
- **Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?**: Yes, 62%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-oil-pipeline-east-west-restarts-byptptpt)
- **US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?**: No, 83%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080)