# Hormuz traffic remained disrupted

*World. 83% certain. Sunday, 1 November 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Bab el-Mandeb stayed closed and Houthi forces failed to capture Perim Island.**

By the end of October, key maritime routes in the Middle East showed no change. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had not returned to normal, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remained effectively closed. Iranian forces continued to hold Kharg Island, while Houthi militants did not reach Aden. Saudi and Israeli airspaces stayed open, preserving civilian flight paths.

The continued disruption in Hormuz forced tankers to use longer alternative passages, sustaining higher freight costs. No signs of de-escalation appeared in the waterway during the reporting period.

The Bab el-Mandeb closure compelled vessels to navigate around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to transit times. The Strait's blockage persisted despite regional diplomatic overtures. Perim Island remained under Houthi control, indicating no shift in Red Sea Island holdings.

Saudi Arabian airspace experienced no restrictions, allowing commercial airlines to maintain regular schedules. Likewise, Israeli airspace stayed open, avoiding further disruption to regional flights. The absence of airspace closures reflected a limited escalation of the conflict.

Houthi forces failed to enter Aden, halting their advance toward southern Yemen. Their inability to capture additional territory kept the front lines static. Overall, the status quo across shipping lanes and strategic islands endured through the month.

## Analysis

Shipping companies must absorb additional fuel costs and longer delivery windows, which can translate into higher consumer prices for oil-derived products worldwide.

Control of Kharg Island by Iran and of Perim Island by the Houthis maintains the existing strategic footholds that each side relies on for maritime influence. Kharg serves as a logistical hub for Iranian naval operations, while Perim offers the Houthis a potential choke point in the Red Sea, preserving their leverage despite the lack of territorial gains on land.

The decision not to close Saudi or Israeli airspace indicates that the conflict has not expanded into the aviation domain, limiting immediate risks to civilian air traffic. However, the continued naval blockades keep regional tension high, and any miscalculation at sea could trigger broader military responses that might later affect airspace usage.

Future developments hinge on diplomatic negotiations and the willingness of external powers to intervene in the maritime disputes. While the status quo has held through October, the economic strain on shipping and the strategic importance of the straits mean that pressure for a resolution will likely intensify, though the exact path forward remains uncertain.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [Strait of Hormuz Closed, Day 226 | Live Tracker & Monitor](https://straits.live/)
- [Strait of Hormuz Live Traffic Tracker — Real-Time Shipping & Oil Crisis Monitor](https://hormuzstraitmonitor.com/)
- [2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis)
- [Polytrade alert · Issue #174 · borjavillarreal/polytrade](https://github.com/borjavillarreal/polytrade/issues/174)

## What this was built from

- **Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?**: No, 99%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-october-31-20260810151043583)
- **Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?**: No, 94%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by)
- **Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?**: No, 99%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31)
- **Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?**: No, 95%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/houthis-enter-aden-byptptpt)
- **Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?**: No, 83%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/perim-island-no-longer-under-houthi-control-by-20260916)
- **Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?**: No, 93%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-airspace-closed-by)
- **Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?**: No, 94%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-airspace-closed-byptptpt)