# Middle east maritime routes and airspace stayed open through October

*World. 89% certain. Sunday, 1 November 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Strait of Hormuz traffic remained disrupted while Saudi and Israeli skies stayed operational.**

By the end of October 2026, the principal maritime routes and regional airspace in the Middle East remained largely open and under existing control. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued at reduced levels, far below pre-conflict norms. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait also stayed operational, with no reports of a closure.

The reduced flow in the Strait of Hormuz reflected that traffic had not returned to normal by October 31. Kharg Island stayed under Iranian authority throughout the month. The United States made no announcement ending any Iranian blockade during the same period.

Houthi forces did not move into Aden by the end of October. Perim Island remained under Houthi control at month's close. Consequently the southern Red Sea corridor stayed free of new control changes.

Saudi Arabian airspace stayed open throughout October, with no closure reported. Israeli airspace likewise remained unrestricted at month's end. Commercial flights continued to use these skies without interruption.

The persistence of open routes allowed global trade to flow through the region despite ongoing geopolitical strains. Oil tankers and container ships kept using the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb passages, albeit at lower volumes. Aviation operators maintained schedules over Saudi and Israeli airspace, preserving connectivity across the Middle East.

## Analysis

The continued operation of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb means that, while volumes are lower, the essential arteries for global energy and goods shipments have not been severed. Shipping companies can still route cargo, albeit with higher insurance costs and longer transit times, which may translate into modest price pressures on oil and other commodities.

Kharg Island's retention by Iran preserves a strategic naval and logistical hub for Tehran, limiting any immediate shift in the balance of naval power in the Persian Gulf. The absence of a US declaration ending an Iranian blockade suggests that diplomatic leverage remains contested, and that any de-escalation will likely require further negotiations or changes on the ground.

The Houthis' failure to enter Aden and their continued hold on Perim Island indicate that their territorial ambitions in the southern Red Sea have stalled for now. This status quo reduces the risk of sudden disruptions to Red Sea shipping lanes, but the presence of Houthi-controlled territory near the Bab el-Mandeb still poses a latent security concern for vessels transiting the corridor.

Open Saudi and Israeli airspace has allowed airlines to maintain regular schedules, supporting passenger and cargo flows essential to regional economies. However, the broader strategic environment remains volatile, and any escalation involving ground forces or missile threats could quickly jeopardize the current airspace openness, leaving airlines and governments monitoring the situation closely.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [Strait of Hormuz Closed, Day 230 | Live Tracker & Monitor](https://straits.live/)
- [Strait of Hormuz Live Traffic Tracker — Real-Time Shipping & Oil Crisis Monitor](https://hormuzstraitmonitor.com/)
- [2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis)
- [Is the Strait of Hormuz Open? Live Status: Restricted | hormuz.now](https://hormuz.now/)
- [Saudi-led coalition orders evacuation of Yemen oil facility in Sanaa](https://cryptobriefing.com/saudi-led-coalition-orders-evacuation-of-yemen-oil-facility-in-sanaa/)
- [Houthi official warns of visit to Saudi oil sites amid rising tensions](https://cryptobriefing.com/houthi-official-warns-of-visit-to-saudi-oil-sites-amid-rising-tensions/)

## What this was built from

- **US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?**: No, 95%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080)
- **Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?**: No, 99%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-october-31-20260810151043583)
- **Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?**: No, 95%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by)
- **Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?**: No, 99%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31)
- **Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?**: No, 96%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/houthis-enter-aden-byptptpt)
- **Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?**: No, 89%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-airspace-closed-by)
- **Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?**: No, 90%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/perim-island-no-longer-under-houthi-control-by-20260916)
- **Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?**: No, 95%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-airspace-closed-byptptpt)