# Netanyahu stayed prime minister as Likud fell below 20 seats

*Politics. 64% certain. Tuesday, 27 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**He held office through early October and his party won fewer than twenty seats.**

Benjamin Netanyahu continued as Israel's prime minister through early October 2026. The confirmation came after the parliamentary term ended on October 7. Meanwhile his Likud party held fewer than twenty seats in the Knesset.

The seat count for Likud was later reported on Tuesday, October 27.

The Knesset composition showed Likud with a sub-twenty seat presence. With fewer than twenty seats, the party's share of the legislature was limited. The reduced representation altered the balance of power in the chamber. The cabinet, however, continued under Netanyahu's direction.

Netanyahu's continuation meant the premiership remained unchanged as the election approached. The government's stability persisted despite Likud's reduced parliamentary strength. The prime ministership stayed in Netanyahu's hands through the end of October.

## Analysis

Netanyahu's retention of the premiership ensures that the executive branch will not change before the scheduled election. This continuity allows existing policies to proceed without interruption, even though his party holds a modest number of seats. The situation reduces the likelihood of a sudden leadership turnover that could disrupt diplomatic or security initiatives.

With Likud holding fewer than twenty seats, the party will need to rely on coalition partners to command a governing majority. The need for agreements with other factions may shape legislative priorities and could compel compromises on key issues. The dynamics of these negotiations will influence how effectively the government can pass new measures.

Voters and parties will watch how the coalition functions under a minority-led government. The outcome of that election will determine whether the current arrangement endures or a new configuration emerges.

## What this was built from

- **Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?**: Yes, 98%; settles Wednesday, 7 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/GabrielBenckert/will-benjamin-netanyahu-remain-the)
- **Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?**: Yes, 99%; settles Thursday, 8 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-netanyahu-still-be-the-prime-m-p34umjodai)
- **Israel Election: Likud # of seats?**: <20, 64%; settles Tuesday, 27 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-election-likud-of-seats)