# Israel-Iran ceasefire held through October 31

*World. 82% certain. Sunday, 1 November 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Israel did not strike Greater Beirut and made no accusations of Iranian proxy attacks.**

The ceasefire between Israel and Iran remained in effect through October 31, as confirmed on Saturday. The truce persisted despite earlier tensions in the region. Its continuation was noted alongside the absence of new Israeli operations in Lebanon.

Israeli forces did not carry out any military action targeting Greater Beirut by the end of October. Surveillance and reports showed no strikes or artillery fire in the Lebanese capital. The city remained unscathed during the period.

Israel also refrained from accusing Iran or its proxies of involvement in any plane-stabbing incident. The diplomatic tone stayed consistent with the ceasefire framework.

No further incidents were reported as of Sunday. The situation stayed relatively stable.

## Analysis

The durability of the Israel-Iran ceasefire reduces the immediate risk of a broader regional flare-up, but it does not resolve the underlying strategic disputes that have fueled previous confrontations. Both sides may view the continuation as a temporary de-escalation, leaving room for diplomatic maneuvering while retaining the capacity for rapid re-engagement if triggers reappear.

The absence of Israeli strikes on Greater Beirut suggests a restraint that could lower the probability of direct conflict with Lebanon. Without kinetic actions in the Lebanese capital, Hezbollah and other Lebanese actors have limited immediate justification for retaliation, which may help keep the southern front quiet for the time being.

Israel's decision not to publicly accuse Iran or its proxies of a plane-stabbing incident indicates a cautious diplomatic posture.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [Twelve-Day War ceasefire - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war_ceasefire)
- [Sept. 26: Iran’s Araghchi says Tehran yet to receive official US position on Hormuz proposal | The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-26-2026/)
- [2026 Iran war | Oil, Explained, United States, Israel, Strait of Hormuz, Map, & Conflict | Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-Iran-war)
- [3 years of war: Data shows IDF hit 100,000 targets as 31,500 projectiles fired at Israel | The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/3-years-of-war-data-shows-idf-hit-100000-targets-as-31500-projectiles-fired-at-israel/)

## What this was built from

- **Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?**: Yes, 91%; settles Saturday, 31 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963)
- **Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?**: No, 90%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-accuses-iranproxies-of-plane-stabbing-incident-by-oct-31)
- **Israel military action against Lebanon on October 15?**: Yes, 82%; settles Friday, 16 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-lebanon-on-october-2026)
- **Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?**: No, 91%; settles Saturday, 31 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-beirut-byptptpt-20260708221422557)