# Iran made no moves on Hormuz fees, cables, Kuwait, or uranium

*World. 86% certain. Sunday, 1 November 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The country also failed to reach a Hormuz accord with Oman by the end of October.**

On Sunday, 1 November 2026, Iran confirmed that it had not surrendered its enriched uranium stockpile by the 31 October deadline. Iran also said it had not imposed any new fees for transiting the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, the anticipated Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement remained unsigned as of Saturday, 31 October.

The deadline for delivering the enriched uranium stockpile was set for 31 October 2026. Iran's response on 1 November indicated that the material would remain in its possession. No further information about the stockpile's status was released.

Reports confirmed that Iranian forces had not entered Kuwaiti territory by the end of October. Likewise, there was no indication of any reshuffling of Iran's senior political or military leadership by that date. Both observations were logged on 1 November.

Iranian authorities denied involvement in any attacks on undersea internet cables through the Gulf region. The denial was part of a broader statement that Tehran had not introduced new transit fees for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. These points were included in the 1 November briefing.

Negotiations with Oman over a Hormuz shipping agreement concluded without a signed deal on 31 October. The lack of an agreement was confirmed in the same set of statements released the following day. No other bilateral initiatives were announced at that time.

## Analysis

The failure to surrender the enriched uranium stockpile leaves the nuclear verification process unresolved, limiting the ability of international bodies to assess Iran's compliance and reducing diplomatic leverage for further concessions.

By refraining from an invasion of Kuwait, Tehran avoided opening a new front that could have drawn regional powers into direct conflict, thereby preserving the fragile stability that has characterized Gulf relations this year.

The absence of any leadership change indicates continuity in Iran's strategic direction, which suggests that ongoing negotiations with external partners will proceed under the same decision-makers and policy outlook.

Without new Hormuz fees, sabotage incidents, or a formal Iran-Oman agreement, maritime traffic through the strait continues under existing informal arrangements; however, the missing bilateral framework sustains uncertainty for shipping insurers and may influence future diplomatic efforts to formalize navigation rules.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [2025–2026 Iran–United States negotiations - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Iran%E2%80%93United_States_negotiations)
- [Iran will not trade its nuclear insurance policy for worthless American promises – Yerepouni Daily News](https://www.yerepouni-news.com/iran-will-not-trade-its-nuclear-insurance-policy-for-worthless-american-promises/)
- [Iran nuclear deal - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action)
- [Iran’s Nuclear Program: Tehran’s Compliance with International Obligations | Congress.gov | Library of Congress](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R40094)

## What this was built from

- **Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?**: No, 95%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260625175035466)
- **Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?**: No, 86%; settles Saturday, 31 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-oman-hormuz-management-agreement-byptptpt-20260804222725871)
- **Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?**: No, 96%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-damage-undersea-internet-cables-byptptpt)
- **Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?**: No, 98%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-invades-kuwait-byptptpt-20260720015031544)
- **Iran leadership change by October 31?**: No, 98%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leadership-change-by)
- **Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?**: No, 100%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by)