# S&P 500 missed $780 target as Berkshire lagged

*Economics. 50% certain. Thursday, 1 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The index stayed below $780 and Colombia's Central Bank left rates unchanged.**

The S&P 500 finished September below the $780 level. Berkshire Hathaway's stock lagged the index during the third quarter. Colombia's Central Bank kept its policy rate unchanged in September.

Throughout September the index never rose to $780, closing the month under the threshold. The failure to reach the target highlighted softer equity momentum.

In the third quarter Berkshire Hathaway's total return trailed the S&P 500. The company's shares fell short of the benchmark's gains. The underperformance added to the broader sense of disappointment among equity investors.

The Colombian Central Bank left its policy rate unchanged in September. The decision came without a rate hike. The hold provided mixed signals for investors.

## Analysis

Investors who counted on a higher benchmark could adjust exposure to large-cap stocks, potentially shifting toward defensive positions.

While the shortfall is confined to a single quarter, it could influence sentiment about its management's ability to generate excess returns.

The unchanged stance contrasted with expectations of a rate increase, creating mixed signals for investors. The decision left borrowing costs steady while leaving the outlook for inflation management uncertain, influencing capital flow considerations.

## What this was built from

- **Central Bank of Colombia decision in September**: No change, 82%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/central-bank-of-colombia-decision-in-september-20260630004643935)
- **Will Berkshire Hathaway outperform S&P 500 in Q3 2026?**: No, 50%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/SacredChicken/will-berkshire-hathaway-outperform-9P6dSEhcNR)
- **Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in September?**: No, 85%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-spy-hit-in-september-2026)