# Labour won Holborn and St Pancras by-election with over 15% Margin

*Politics. 37% certain. Friday, 9 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Labour secured the seat and the Greens captured about a third of the vote.**

Labour won the Holborn and St Pancras by-election on Thursday, beating the Green candidate by a Margin exceeding 15 percentage points. The Green Party secured between 30 and 35 percent of the vote. The result was declared after the count concluded on Thursday.

Independent candidate Ewan Cameron finished third in the contest. His placement was confirmed on Friday when the final results were published. Cameron trailed the Green candidate.

The By-election took place in the London constituency of Holborn and St Pancras. Voting occurred on Thursday and the count was completed the same day.

The Green Party's vote share placed it firmly in second place. Independent Ewan Cameron's third-place finish completed the ranking.

## Analysis

Labour's Victory, secured with a Margin of more than 15 points, reinforces the party's foothold in this central London seat. The size of the Margin suggests a comfortable level of support among voters, though without comparable figures it is unclear how it stacks against previous contests in the area.

The Green Party's share of between 30 and 35 percent demonstrates a significant level of backing for its platform in an urban constituency. Such a performance could encourage the party to target similar seats in future elections, but the exact impact will depend on how the result translates into broader electoral strategy.

Ewan Cameron's third-place finish as an independent indicates limited traction for non-party candidates in this race. While his presence added an alternative option for voters, the result shows that the contest remained dominated by the two leading parties, leaving little room for independents to influence the outcome.

## What this was built from

- **Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory**: Labour 15%+, 37%; settles Thursday, 8 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory)
- **Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?**: 45-50%, 38%; settles Thursday, 8 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election-labour-vote-share)
- **Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Green Vote Share?**: 30-35%, 58%; settles Thursday, 8 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election-green-vote-share)
- **Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: 3rd Place**: Ewan Cameron, 43%; settles Friday, 9 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election-3rd-place)