# ECB raises Interest rates by 25 bps

*Economics. 88% certain. Wednesday, 30 September 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Bank of Japan also increases rates**

The European Central Bank raised Interest rates by 25 basis points in September, a decision that was made on Thursday, 10 September. This move was followed by the Bank of Japan, which also increased its Interest rates by 25 basis points in September, a decision that was made on Friday, 18 September.

This decision was made on Thursday, 10 September.

25% or more. This decision was made on Wednesday, 9 September.

In contrast, the Central Bank of Colombia decided to keep its Interest rates unchanged in September, a decision that was made on Wednesday, 30 September, with an 88% chance of no change.

The Bank of Japan's decision to raise Interest rates by 25 basis points in September had a 93% chance of happening, and was made on Friday, 18 September.

## Analysis

The recent Interest rate decisions made by Central banks around the world, including the ECB and the Bank of Japan, may have significant implications for the global economy. The ECB's decision to raise Interest rates by 25 basis points may be seen as an attempt to curb inflation and stabilize the economy, while the Bank of Japan's similar decision may be aimed at stimulating economic growth.

The fact that the Central Bank of Colombia decided to keep its Interest rates unchanged may suggest that the Bank is taking a more cautious approach to monetary policy, and is waiting to see how the global economy develops before making any further changes. This decision may be influenced by the Bank's assessment of the current economic conditions, as well as its expectations for future economic growth.

The Interest rate decisions made by these Central banks may have far-reaching consequences for businesses and individuals, and may affect the overall direction of the global economy. However, the exact impact of these decisions will depend on a variety of factors, including the response of other Central banks, the state of the global economy, and the actions of governments and other economic actors.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [ECB Deposit Facility Rate for Euro Area (ECBDFR) | FRED | St. Louis Fed](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ECBDFR)
- [Will the ECB Raise Interest Rates Again in 2026, but Cut Them in 2027? | Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/economy/will-ecb-raise-interest-rates-again-2026-cut-them-2027)
- [ECB Ready To Raise Rates In September But Unlikely To Signal Further Tightening](https://www.sahi.com/news/ecb-ready-to-raise-rates-in-september-but-unlikely-to-signal-further-tightening-war-PE3_MACR)
- [Economists agree: ECB to hike interest rates by 25 bps to 2.5% in September - Reuters | FXStreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/news/economists-agree-ecb-to-hike-interest-rates-by-25-bps-to-25-in-september-202608131024)

## What this was built from

- **European Central Bank interest rate decision in September**: Rise by 0.25% or more, 96%; settles Wednesday, 9 September 2026 (futuur). [Market](https://futuur.com/q/242169/european-central-bank-interest-rate-decision-in-september)
- **ECB Interest Rates: September 2026**: 25 bps increase, 99%; settles Thursday, 10 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-september-2026-20260616222636097)
- **Bank of Japan interest rate decision — September 2026**: 25 bps increase, 93%; settles Friday, 18 September 2026 (futuur). [Market](https://futuur.com/q/242743/bank-of-japan-interest-rate-decision-september-2026)
- **Central Bank of Colombia decision in September**: No change, 88%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/central-bank-of-colombia-decision-in-september-20260630004643935)