# ECB, BoJ and Colombia kept rates steady on Friday

*Economics. 33% certain. Friday, 30 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Colombia's Central Bank left rates unchanged on Friday, while Israel did so on 21 October.**

On Friday 30 October, the European Central Bank left its policy rates unchanged. The Bank of Japan made the same decision on the same day. Colombia's Central Bank also kept its policy rate steady on Friday. Earlier in the month, on Wednesday 21 October, the Bank of Israel chose not to alter its rate.

The ECB's announcement left its main refinancing, deposit and marginal lending rates at their existing levels.

The Bank of Japan announced on Friday that its short-term policy rate remained unchanged. The decision left the rate at the same level as in the previous meeting. The announcement coincided with the ECB and Colombia decisions on the same day.

Colombia's Central Bank, deciding on Friday, left its policy rate unchanged. The Bank of Israel, on 21 October, also kept its rate steady, avoiding any Change Both moves contributed to a broader pattern of rate stability across different economies.

The Federal Reserve's October meeting recorded zero dissent among its members. All members voted in favor of keeping rates unchanged.

## Analysis

By pausing hikes, the banks signal that they see current rates as sufficient to meet their price-stability goals.

Israel's decision earlier in the month to hold its rate adds another data point from a region facing distinct economic pressures. A steady rate in that environment can help maintain financing conditions for households and firms while the Central Bank watches regional developments. Together with the other unchanged decisions, the stance suggests a collective preference for stability over further tightening.

The Federal Reserve's meeting, which produced zero dissent, shows internal consensus on a hold stance. Such clarity may shape expectations for future rate paths in the United States.

When major Central banks converge on a hold decision, the room for maneuvering in response to an unexpected shock narrows. If inflation were to rise again, authorities may need to act more decisively to re-anchor expectations. Conversely, the current consensus leaves open the possibility of future easing if growth slows, but the exact timing remains uncertain.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [Key ECB interest rates - European Union](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html)
- [Euro Area Interest Rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/interest-rate)
- [ECB Rate Decision Forecast & Interest Rate Odds 2026](https://oraclemarkets.io/dashboards/ecb-rates)
- [Monetary policy decisions - European Central Bank](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html)

## What this was built from

- **Fed Decision in October?**: No change, 81%; settles Thursday, 29 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537)
- **ECB Interest Rates: October 2026**: No change, 94%; settles Friday, 30 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-october-2026-20260723225848778)
- **Bank of Canada Decision in October?**: No Change, 68%; settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-canada-decision-in-october-20260715203359314)
- **Bank of Israel Decision in October?**: No Change, 91%; settles Wednesday, 21 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-israel-decision-in-october)
- **Central Bank of Colombia decision in October**: No change, 46%; settles Friday, 30 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/central-bank-of-colombia-decision-in-october)
- **Fed interest rate decision — October 2026**: No change, 81%; settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 (futuur). [Market](https://futuur.com/q/245727/fed-interest-rate-decision-october-2026)
- **How many dissent at the October Fed meeting?**: 0, 33%; settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-dissent-at-the-october-fed-meeting)
- **Bank of Japan interest rate decision — October 2026**: No change, 83%; settles Friday, 30 October 2026 (futuur). [Market](https://futuur.com/q/245728/bank-of-japan-interest-rate-decision-october-2026)
- **Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?**: Yes, 71%; settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/HillaryClinton/will-polymarket-be-right-about-ever)