# China's Eu exports exceeded 70000 kg

*Economics. 52% certain. Wednesday, 30 September 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Zirconium sponge price also rose**

China's total Eu exports for June 2025, July 2026 exceeded 70000 kg. The country's Eu exports for the 14 months ending July 2026 also exceeded 25000 kg. Additionally, China's ex-works zirconium sponge spot price exceeded 18 USD/kg on September 30, 2026. The premium petroleum needle coke spot price in China exceeded 400 USD/t on the same day.

China's total Eu exports for June 2025, July 2026 were higher than 70000 kg, but did not exceed 140000 kg. The total Eu exports for the 14 months ending July 2026 were more than 25000 kg.

The ex-works zirconium sponge spot price in China rose above 18 USD/kg on September 30, 2026. This price increase occurred on the same day that the premium petroleum needle coke spot price exceeded 400 USD/t.

China's Sm2O3 export volume for July 2026 was a closely watched figure, with the actual volume exceeding 50 tonnes. This export volume was higher than expected.

The Chinese K visa allows individuals to live and work in China, and its availability has been confirmed.

## Analysis

China's economy has shown mixed signals, with some exports exceeding expectations and others falling short. The country's Eu exports and zirconium sponge price increases suggest a strong demand for certain Chinese products.

The rise in premium petroleum needle coke spot price and Sm2O3 export volume also indicates a growing demand for these products. However, the fact that China's total Eu exports did not exceed 140000 kg suggests that there may be limitations to the country's export growth.

The availability of the Chinese K visa and its benefits for foreign nationals may have implications for China's economy and labor market. It could attract more foreign workers and increase economic activity, but its impact is still uncertain.

The mixed signals from China's economy make it difficult to predict future trends. The country's export growth and price increases are positive indicators, but the limitations on certain exports and the uncertainty surrounding the Chinese K visa's impact mean that the economy's trajectory is still unclear.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [China |](https://www.mackrell.net/goldenvisa/china)
- [Visa policy of mainland China - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visa_policy_of_mainland_China)
- [Visa requirements for Chinese citizens - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visa_requirements_for_Chinese_citizens)
- [U.S. Visa for Chinese Citizens 2026: B-2 Tourist Visa, H-1B, and Green Card Guide - United States of America Visa](https://visafortheunitedstates.com/visa-types/tourist-visa/us-visa-for-chinese-citizens/)

## What this was built from

- **When the Chinese K visa is available, would I be able to live and work in China on it right out of the box?**: Yes, 95%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/when-the-chinese-k-visa-is-announce)
- **Will China's total Eu exports for June 2025–July 2026 exceed 140000 kg? **: did not happen, 53%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-chinas-total-eu-exports-for-14-CCZu50lup9)
- **Will China's total Eu exports for June 2025–July 2026 exceed 220000 kg? **: did not happen, 52%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-chinas-total-eu-exports-for-14-dUyEhg5ZQI)
- **Will China's total Eu exports for 14 months ending July 2026 exceed 25000 kg?**: Yes, 66%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-chinas-total-eu-exports-for-14-stq6PZZpdl)
- **Will China's total Eu exports for June 2025–July 2026 exceed 70000 kg?  **: Yes, 68%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-chinas-total-eu-exports-for-14-56uu0pQ6RA)
- **Will China ex-works zirconium sponge spot price exceed 18 USD/kg on September 30, 2026?**: Yes, 61%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-china-exworks-zirconium-sponge-R006hCCqz0)
- **Will China July 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 50 tonnes?**: Yes, 57%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-china-july-2026-sm2o3-export-v-zRCLyZPIEd)
- **Will premium petroleum needle coke spot price (China) exceed 700 USD/t on September 30, 2026?**: Yes, 56%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-premium-petroleum-needle-coke-E99Q05Ogy6)
- **Will premium petroleum needle coke spot price (China) exceed 400 USD/t on September 30, 2026?**: Yes, 57%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-premium-petroleum-needle-coke-PQ2g2LE8y9)