# Tarcísio de Freitas won São Paulo governorship

*Politics. 58% certain. Monday, 5 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Cleitinho Azevedo won Minas Gerais and Eduardo Paes won Rio de Janeiro.**

On Monday voters delivered a wave of gubernatorial victories across Brazil. Tarcísio de Freitas won the São Paulo race. Cleitinho Azevedo secured Minas Gerais. Governors were also chosen in Rio de Janeiro, Ceará, Paraná, Bahia, Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina.

Cleitinho Azevedo ran under the Republicanos banner. He defeated candidates from PT, PSD and PDT. Elmano de Freitas won the Ceará governorship. He beat former presidential contender Ciro Gomes.

Eduardo Paes emerged victorious in Rio de Janeiro. He outperformed Douglas Ruas, Anthony Garotinho and Rafa Luz. Sergio Moro captured the Paraná governorship. His rivals included Sandro Alex and Requião Filho.

Jerônimo Rodrigues won the Bahia race. He defeated ACM Neto. Luciano Zucco secured Rio Grande do Sul. He beat Juliana Brizola and Gabriel Souza.

Jorginho Mello won the Santa Catarina governorship. He surpassed Marcelo Brigadeiro, João Rodrigues and Gelson Merisio. The election concluded on Monday.

## Analysis

The new governors give a coalition of regional leaders control over many of Brazil's most populous and economically significant states. São Paulo alone contributes a large share of national GDP, so the outcome there can influence fiscal and infrastructure priorities at the federal level.

Alignments that match the president's platform could smooth the passage of national reforms, while divergent agendas might create friction in areas such as education, health and public security.

Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and Bahia host major industrial and tourism sectors, so new leadership may alter investment incentives, tax structures and regulatory approaches. In the south, Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina could see shifts in agricultural and export policies under their new administrations.

The long-term impact remains uncertain. Success will depend on each governor's ability to build legislative coalitions, manage local political dynamics and respond to national economic conditions. Future elections and possible legal challenges could further reshape the balance of power established by this week's results.

## What this was built from

- **São Paulo Governor Election Winner**: Tarcísio de Freitas, 99%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/so-paulo-governor-election-winner)
- **Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner**: Cleitinho Azevedo, 94%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/minas-gerais-governor-election-winner)
- **Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026**: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos), 84%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (futuur). [Market](https://futuur.com/q/236763/minas-gerais-governor-election-winner-in-2026)
- **Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner**: Eduardo Paes, 81%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/rio-de-janeiro-governor-election-winner-20260608202949176)
- **Ceará Governor Election Winner**: Elmano de Freitas, 66%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/cear-governor-election-winner)
- **Paraná Governor Election Winner**: Sergio Moro, 82%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/parana-governor-election-winner-20260608205118343)
- **Bahia Governor Election Winner**: Jerônimo Rodrigues, 58%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bahia-governor-election-winner)
- **Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner**: Luciano Zucco, 78%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/rio-grande-do-sul-governor-election-winner)
- **Santa Catarina Governor Election Winner **: Jorginho Mello, 99%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/santa-catarina-governor-election-winner-20260609164309743)