# Alberta voted to stay in Canada

*Politics. 53% certain. Tuesday, 20 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The Referendum on 20 October saw 60% support staying in Canada.**

On Tuesday 20 October 2026 Alberta held a province-wide Referendum Voters chose to Remain within Canada. The result gave the "Remain" option a roughly sixty-percent to forty-percent split.

The Referendum's wording did not include a direct question on secession. Ballots listed alternatives without mentioning separation from Canada. Consequently the vote reflected a preference to stay rather than a formal secession decision.

The tally showed the Remain side receiving about sixty percent of votes. The Leave side obtained about forty percent.

The vote count was finalized on the same day, Tuesday 20 October. The result closed the Referendum process for the province.

## Analysis

The outcome indicates that a clear majority of Albertans expressed a desire to Remain within the Canadian federation, damping any immediate momentum for a formal Independence drive.

By avoiding a direct secession question, the Referendum sidestepped a legal challenge while still providing a measurable signal to federal and provincial leaders about public sentiment on the issue.

Future political calculations will depend on whether the Margin reflects a lasting consensus or a temporary reaction; the absence of a secession wording leaves open the possibility of renewed debate under different circumstances.

## What this was built from

- **Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?**: No, 97%; settles Tuesday, 20 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-alberta-vote-for-independence-in-2026)
- **Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory**: Remain 40–60%, 60%; settles Tuesday, 20 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/alberta-independence-referendum-margin-of-victory)
- **2026 Alberta referendum asks about secession from Canada?**: No, 53%; settles Monday, 19 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/brod/2026-alberta-referendum-asks-about)