# Key maritime routes and airspaces stayed open as of October

*World. 72% certain. Sunday, 1 November 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Strait of Hormuz traffic remained disrupted while Saudi and Israeli airspace stayed open.**

On Sunday, regional maritime routes and airspace remained unchanged. No closures were recorded for the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb, Israeli or Saudi airspace. Houthi forces also failed to make advances into Aden.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had not returned to pre-crisis levels by the end of October. Vessels continued to face disruptions, though the waterway itself stayed open. Kharg Island stayed under Iranian control throughout the period. The situation left oil shipments constrained but the passage intact.

The International Atomic Energy Agency did not conduct visits to Iran's Isfahan, Fordow or Natanz sites before the deadline. Similarly, the United States made no announcement ending any Iranian blockade. The lack of inspection and diplomatic statements left nuclear monitoring unchanged.

Houthi forces did not reach the Yemeni port city of Aden by the end of the month. Their control of Perim Island persisted, as the Island remained in Houthi hands. The absence of an advance kept the Red Sea shipping lanes free of direct conflict. Regional authorities reported no shift in territorial control.

Israeli and Saudi airspaces stayed open for civilian and military flights. Overall, the principal maritime corridors in the Gulf and Red Sea continued to function despite lingering disruptions.

## Analysis

Iran's retention of Kharg Island and the absence of IAEA inspections keep diplomatic leverage in the nuclear arena unresolved, limiting the scope for confidence-building measures and leaving regional security calculations uncertain.

Houthi restraint in not moving into Aden, coupled with their ongoing hold on Perim Island, creates a mixed security picture: the Red Sea corridor avoids direct combat but the islands remain contested, allowing the group to maintain a foothold without escalating to a broader naval confrontation.

With Saudi, Israeli and broader airspace remaining open, the risk of an aerial escalation that could compound maritime disruptions is reduced. However, the unresolved issues, stalled nuclear inspections, lingering traffic bottlenecks, and contested Island control, mean that the regional status quo remains fragile and could shift if any of these variables change.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [Strait of Hormuz Closed, Day 224 | Live Tracker & Monitor](https://straits.live/)
- [Strait of Hormuz Live Traffic Tracker — Real-Time Shipping & Oil Crisis Monitor](https://hormuzstraitmonitor.com/)
- [2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis)
- [Polytrade alert · Issue #174 · borjavillarreal/polytrade](https://github.com/borjavillarreal/polytrade/issues/174)

## What this was built from

- **US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?**: No, 91%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080)
- **Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?**: No, 99%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-october-31-20260810151043583)
- **Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?**: No, 93%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by)
- **Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?**: No, 99%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31)
- **Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?**: No, 95%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/houthis-enter-aden-byptptpt)
- **Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?**: No, 72%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/perim-island-no-longer-under-houthi-control-by-20260916)
- **Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?**: No, 93%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-airspace-closed-by)
- **Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?**: No, 95%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-airspace-closed-byptptpt)
- **IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?**: No, 98%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iaea-visits-isfahan-fordow-or-natanz-nuclear-site-by-july-31-20260624040209014)